A matter of scale
I am periodically accosted at parties when someone mentions to a friend that I work on renewable energy.
“You there, always talking about renewable energy and solar cells and all that! Why haven’t you solved this greenhouse problem yet?”
The problem is one of scale. To explain what I mean, I have to talk about a sculpture.
Arthur Ganson has a sculpture at the MIT museum consisting of a 12-stage geartrain, where each stage reduces the speed of rotation by a factor of 50. The left end is spinning furiously at around 200 rpm; the right end is embedded in a concrete block. The end in the concrete makes one revolution every 2 trillion years or so.
(You can see a video of the sculpture at the 8:30 mark in this video from the 2004 TED conference, but finish reading this first.)
I can see that the gear at the left end of the sculpture is spinning. After three or four 50:1 reductions, I can only see the gears moving if I watch for a while. When I think about gear reductions in the abstract, I think, “Sure, if you reduced the speed enough, it wouldn’t break the concrete,” but when I look at the real thing, it’s baffling. I stand there looking at the sculpture, knowing that I should expect to see what I’m seeing, but my weak human mind can’t adjust its expectations.
In the same way that when I look at Ganson’s sculpture, I can’t understand what I’m seeing, it’s hard for us to grasp on a visceral level the difference between the 1000 watts Americans use in their homes, the 1,000,000,000 watts we generate in a large power plant, and the 15,000,000,000,000 watts that we use globally.
We hear news of advances in renewable energy. The amount of installed wind power has been growing at around 30% for the last two years. Investment in renewable energy startups is through the roof in the last 2 or 3 years. The news we hear of huge investments, the technological breakthroughs, and Prius drivers loading up with compact fluorescent bulbs at Costco are the first gear spinning wildly (well, maybe not the people loading up the bulbs– they’re just excitable).
Yet on the global scale, the vast majority of our energy comes from fossil fuels. Even after 30 years of work on photovoltaics, the global installed capacity is around 8 GW, or roughly 1/2000th of the energy we use globally. Windpower is about ten times larger, but still only approaching 1% of global energy usage. (I’m ignoring the differences between installed capacity and actual production here, but that correction just makes the fraction of renewables even more slight.)
What’s more, the concrete block end of the spectrum is not reported in the news (rightly so, as it’s not interesting). The massive juggernaut of fossil fuel infrastructure continues to expand. Installation of large natural gas turbines is proceeding in China at more than 1 GW per week, which is enough to match the entire history of photovoltaics installed worldwide in 2 months.
What’s the result? We think we see progress–the gear spinning wildly–but if a global switch to renewables actually happens, it will take a lot longer than our scale-limited minds expect.